Economic Update

Stay up to date with relevant economic news

China economic downturn may force COVID restrictions re-think

Dire Chinese industrial production numbers on Monday, although predicted, were much worse than expected year on year. The figures expected to be 0.4% and came in at -2.9% and retail sales were expected to be -6% and were nearly double that @ -11.1% ; which shows the impact of lockdowns.

The Chinese numbers raise fears of recession which is likely to affect world growth such is China’s influence. This is outweighing the effect of Russian commodity exports becoming more and more restricted as the Europeans tighten the sanction screws. However after the numbers, which may or may not be coincidental, the Chinese authorities announced a relaxation in Shanghai’s lockdown and rumours resurface that the Chinese central bank may be readying interest rate drops all of which enabled commodities to recover after an initial drop but they still look vulnerable to further falls.

In the data this week are unemployment in European states which are unlikely to be market moving but does add to the inflation and thereby rate story as wage inflation is driving a good proportion of inflation.

Retail sales are also due in the UK and USA and are being viewed as indications as to the state of the economy with the UK version likely to continue the poor state of the retail market especially the online version as the cost of living increases continues to restrain the consumer.

The US$ continues to bought on dips on interest rate differentials which in turn pressures commodity inflation in countries which don’t use or aren’t linked to the US$.






May 17


Unemployment rate





Unemployment change





Retail Sales MoM



May 18


Inflation rate YoY





Housing Starts



May 19


Initial Jobless Claims



May 20


Retail Sales



DISCLAIMER – Do not rely on information contained in this Market Commentary.

The content of this Market Commentary is provided for general information only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. In particular, neither this Market Commentary nor any other content of our website should be construed as investment advice. The information contained in this Market Commentary is not, and should not be read as, an offer, recommendation or inducement to engage in investment activity. In no event shall we be liable for any damages resulting from reliance on or use of any information contained in this Market Commentary. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content of this Market Commentary. 

Although we make reasonable efforts to ensure that that the information in this Market Commentary is accurate as at the date on which it is published, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that it is accurate, complete or up to date.

Get In Touch

Contact us for more information