Economic Update

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Commodity Supercycle?

The USD slide, least against the EUR and GBP, was halted as divergent economic data between Europe and USA showed a decline in the Eurozone whereas the US economy continues to show signs of recovery with hirings increasing.

GBP has its own problems with Johnson’s government chased by accusations of impropriety but the chances of volatility in the currency are heightened by Thursday’s rate decision and release of the monetary policy report. Rate changes are unlikely but the policy report will be scrutinised closely for clues as to future changes and potential taper in bond buying. To this list you can add local elections and its clear the end of the week has potential for instability.

Commodities continued higher and not just in the metals sphere, lumber for example rallied sharply – supply chain constraints and a lack of physical stock contributing to the move. However, the end of the week saw sharp pullbacks in copper/ palladium and oil and prices will be watched to see if this is indeed a “commodity supercycle” or a function of accessibility to some commodities.

Date

Country

Figures

Expected

Previous

May 03

USA

ISM Manufacturing PMI

65

64.7

May 05

USA

ADP employment report

815K

517K

May 06

UK

BoE Rate decision

0.1%

0.1%

 

UK

Monetary Policy Report

 

 

 

USA

Initial Jobless Claims

540K

553K

May 07

USA

Non-farm payrolls (April)

978K

916K

 

USA

Unemployment rate (April)

5.7%

6%

 

USA

Unemployment rate (March)

6%

6.2%

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