Inflation and jobs data to continue to drive markets

It will be a busy week in the US with employment/labour reports taking the central stage.

The week in the USA is bookended with the Memorial Day holiday on Monday and ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI on Friday.

Its not all USA data:  inflation rates for several European countries including Germany and France will also be on the agenda and after the ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that the negative interest rate environment in EU is going to come to an end in September following record inflation any sign of an uptick may give the market some excuse to believe this may happen sooner rather than later. Indeed Ms. Lagarde comment turned the EURUSD upwards after the early part of last week made it look like another US$ up week.

There are also several speeches by Fed officials diarised which will be keenly watched for further clues after the FED minutes reduced fears that rate rises would be faster which, along with better-than-expected consumer spending data, helped equity markets recover.

China is also reopening after its two-month COVID closures which should improve the mood for growth but the inertia that has built up will take some time to unwind particularly with respect to  supply chain constraints.

The Ukraine war grinds on and looking more and more like a long war of attrition. But oil demand in the USA seems price resilient and hence oil has taken a leg up along with most energy. However metals have barely moved on the week regardless of China reopening showing investment isn’t focused on these markets.

Date

Country

Figures

Expected

Previous

May 30

GER

Inflation Data YoY

7.6%

7.4%

May 31

EUR

Inflation Data YoY

7.7%

7.4%

June 01

EUR

Unemployment rate

8.2%

8.3%

 

USA

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.5

55.4

 

USA

JOLTS Job Openings

11.549

11.4

June 02

USA

Initial Jobless Claims

210k

210k

 

USA

ADP May

300K

247K

June 03

USA

Non Farm Payrolls

320K

428K

 

USA

Unemployment rate

3.5%

3.6%

 

USA

ISM non manufacturing

56.4

57.1

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