Weaker US figures on Friday afternoon offset the CPI mid-week recovery in the USD showing the US consumer to be holding back on purchases and industrial production also weaker. The sheer amount of stimulus poured into the US economy is a drag on the USD as “easy money” is rarely positive for a currency, additionally the weaker than expected consumer data adds to the lower likelihood of the FED raising rates.
The only US figures of note this week are the FED minutes which will be interesting to see if the FED shares the market’s inflation fears.
The UK figures calendar stands in contrast to the US with important data out most of the week starting with unemployment. Whilst this is politically important the furlough system remains and thus understanding the true status of UK unemployment will remain difficult until September at the earliest.
We have three versions of inflation measures out for the UK which should give the bond markets food for thought along with the policymakers.
Retail sales are likely to show a large increase as a result of the unwinding of lockdown measures.
Commodities stabilised albeit off recent highs (copper saw an all time high on Monday ) but the spectre of inflation, supply issues and lockdown unwinding demand should keep prices supported.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
May 18 | UK | Unemployment (March) | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| UK | Average Earnings (March) | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| EUR | GDP (YoY Q1) | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| EUR | Employment change (QoQ Q1) | 0 | 0.3% |
|
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
| -2.533M |
May 19 | GBP | CPI (YoY – April) | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| GBP | PPI Core (YoY – April) | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| GBP | RPI (MoM April) | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| USA | FOMC minutes |
|
|
May 20 | USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 450K | 473K |
| GBP | Retail Sales (YoY Apr) | 36.5% | 7.2% |
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