US non-farm payrolls fell short of market expectations which undermined yields and the US$ snubbing out a nascent rally. It leaves the FED with a problem: jobs growth is too slow for taper ending but also precludes any further stimulation, even the April amendment was anaemic. Whilst not good for the US$ it did give stocks a fillip.
Economic figures out this week will give the markets steer as to the state of world trade with China, Europe and USA all reporting.
Further headaches for the FED may occur on Thursday as the CPI is issued however its unlikely that they will move on rates until Q4 2021.
Central banks with an eye on tapering is not exclusively an American problem the ECB have much the same decisions to make. There are little expectations of any move in rates at their meeting on Thursday however the market will watch for any mention of tapering.
Commodities had a mixed end of week. Oil holding well as optimism of strong demand over summer was added to dropping crude inventories (although gasoline and distillate stockpiles showed increases) and a constrained production from OPEC+.
Metals ended the week either a touch lower or mid range and looking for a direction and in the case of copper some nervousness over Chinese policy.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
June 07 | China | Trade balance (May) | $50.5B | $42.85B |
June 08 | EUR | GDP (YoY)(Q1) | -1.8% | -1.8% |
| EUR | Employment Change | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| USA | Goods Trade Balance (Apr) | -$69B | -$74.4B |
June 09 | China | CPI (YoY)(May) | 1% | 0.9% |
| USA | Crude Oil Stocks Change (Jun 4) |
| -5.08M |
June 10 | EUR | ECB rate decision | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| USA | CPI (YoY)(May) | 4.6% | 4.2% |
June 11 |
| G7 meeting |
|
|
| GBP | Goods Trade Balance (Apr) | -£12.2B | -£11.71B |
| GBP | GDP (MoM)(Apr) | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| GBP | Industrial Production (MoM)(Apr) | 1.2% | 1.8% |
| USA | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 84 | 82.9 |
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