Its all about inflation data this week, certainly outside of Asia and given the present obsession with when will rates rise and tapers reducing, this is an important week. Should any of the CPI figures surprise we could end up with violent market moves. Perhaps the risk is skewed since the market is expecting inflationary numbers, thus market reaction could be larger on lower figures.
Outside of inflation the other issue for markets is COVID which sadly is back on the radar since the Delta variant is finding its way across borders and causing nervousness even in those countries that have advanced vaccination rates which is suppressing currency values and stock markets as the unwind looks to take longer.
Chinese GDP is also on the radar in a data light week and needs to show continued recovery for commodity prices to be supported. Decent figures out of China on Tuesday on exports indicate that GDP should be on the strong side.
Commodities continue to chop in recent ranges with insufficient stimulus to break out – oil retains its supported nature as well as demand and drawdown continues.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
July 14 | GBP | CPI (YoY Jun) | 2.2% | 2.1% |
GBP | RPI (MoM Jun) | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
USA | Goods Trade Balance (Apr) | -$69B | -$74.4B | |
July 15 | China | GDP (QoQ Q2) | 1.2% | 0.6% |
GBP | Unemployment 3m May | 4.7% | 47% | |
July 16 | EUR | ECB rate decision | -0.5% | -0.5% |
USA | Initial Jobless claims | 360k | 373k | |
USA | Powell testimony | |||
July 17 | EUR | CPI (moM Jun) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
USA | Retail sales (MoM Jun) | -0.6% | -1.3% |
The content of this Market Commentary is provided for general information only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. In particular, neither this Market Commentary nor any other content of our website should be construed as investment advice. The information contained in this Market Commentary is not, and should not be read as, an offer, recommendation or inducement to engage in investment activity. In no event shall we be liable for any damages resulting from reliance on or use of any information contained in this Market Commentary. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content of this Market Commentary.
Although we make reasonable efforts to ensure that that the information in this Market Commentary is accurate as at the date on which it is published, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that it is accurate, complete or up to date.