The US starts with the Columbus Day holiday on Monday.
The data sets are skewed towards consumer related inflation numbers which should give the various central banks more evidence of inflation risks and its general direction.
But we cannot get away from the fact the recent Non-Farm payroll numbers were weak and the second one on the trot. The USA economy is not creating jobs or rather, given the unfilled jobs, people have stopped taking them up through various factors. This may change since the halting of the covid jobless related benefits. The drop in numbers is probably not enough to derail the tapering but may have moved the date from November to December. The market bought risk assets on the back of the number, eventually, possibly on the assumption that whilst tapering may reduce the stimulus will remain and wage inflation may cause the wider inflation situation to be higher for longer.
We also have the FOMC minutes which are unlikely to have much in them that the market isn’t already aware of.
The energy price pressure continues even after the Russians agreed to supply more gas to Europe with oil gaining 4.5% on the week after OPEC+ failed to increase output by anything meaningful and potential of a switch from gas to oil amongst the power generators.
Metals have also rallied although in the case of platinum and palladium it appears the catalyst was short covering on the international markets rather than anything more fundamental.
Base metals having not slid as far had further to rise on any short covering, indeed copper rally is partially ascribed to supply disruption, but we remain within recent ranges and somewhat distant from the highs seen last month.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
Oct 12 | GBP | Unemployment rate (Aug) | 4.5% | 4.6% |
Oct 13 | GBP | GDP (Mom Aug) | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| EUR | Industrial Production (MoM Aug) | -1.6% | 1.5% |
| EUR | CPI (YoY Sep) | 3.4% | 4.1% |
| USA | CPI (YoY Sep) | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| USA | FOMC |
|
|
Oct 14 | China | CPI (YoY Sep) | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| USA | PPI (YoY Sep) | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 325K | 326K |
Oct 15 | USA | Retail Sales (MoM Sep) | -0.2% | 0.7% |
The content of this Market Commentary is provided for general information only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. In particular, neither this Market Commentary nor any other content of our website should be construed as investment advice. The information contained in this Market Commentary is not, and should not be read as, an offer, recommendation or inducement to engage in investment activity. In no event shall we be liable for any damages resulting from reliance on or use of any information contained in this Market Commentary. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content of this Market Commentary.
Although we make reasonable efforts to ensure that that the information in this Market Commentary is accurate as at the date on which it is published, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that it is accurate, complete or up to date.