All about the central banks and their decisions this week.
The ECB were cautious and in trying to follow a market calming line did the opposite when Mme Lagarde opined that inflation would last longer than anticipated hence the market bought EUR on the fear of rate rises. But the rally in EUR didn’t last long as the greater likelihood of rate rises in the USA overwhelmed and the USD had a significant rally into the end of the week.
A weak US GDP didn’t help the US$ but we have the FOMC meeting later this week and perhaps the US$ will give back some of its gains prior to it on position squaring. The expectations of tapering and even discussion of rate rises will give the US$ another leg up.
In Japan the snap election appears to have given the Prime Minister a stronger position and this will likely elicit more stimulus hence the Japanese stock market rallied on Monday morning.
GBP remains under pressure as the latest Brexit related showdown, over fish quotas, with the EU rumbles on and the covid numbers remain elevated.
Commodities have stopped rallying and indeed the base metals have seen falls which seem to be caused by energy prices pulling back from their highs thus making extraction of metals from their ores cheaper.
Oil price is caught between possibility that non OPEC member Iran may return to the global market and OPEC pumping more but global inventories are dropping and there is little new investment in exploration.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
Nov 01 | USA | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 60.4 | 61.1 |
Nov 03 | USA | ADP | 369K | 568K |
| USA | FOMC Announcement |
|
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Nov 04 | GBP | BOE Rate decision |
|
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| USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 277K | 281k |
Nov 05 | USA | Non farm payrolls | 385k | 194k |
| USA | Unemployment rate | 4.8% | 4.8% |
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