Top grade data this week out of the USA with GDP and durable goods to the fore but its the annual Jackson Hole symposium that will dominate. We have Powell’s speech at the end of the week to look forward to and perhaps provide more clues as to Fed direction.

The market is getting back to thinking of further rises from the FED especially since St Louis Fed President said he was mulling 75bps rise he also said that he didn’t know whether inflation had peaked. All of which has given rise to a modest rise in the US$ and likely to retain that bias until Friday.

US GDP will likely show a slowing of the economy but another slowing of the magnitude of last months would really concern and likely cause another asset sell off.

We also have PMI’s across Europe, UK and USA and any clues that they give to recessionary likelihoods, any further signs of contraction will concern the market and likely add to US$ strength and commodity price weakness as world growth will be shown to be impacted.

The Chinese bucked the trend for higher rates actually eased over the weekend as they fret over covid and their ongoing property crisis; which also doesn’t augur well for world economic growth.

Commodities are very mixed with oil coming under pressure for the reasons we have expounded over recent weeks (demand destruction, greater supply) but holds around $90 a barrel , however the reverse arguments are true for gas hence it makes new highs.

Metals remain mixed with investor interest low and consumption weak leading to relatively quiet markets and prices being in the middle of the years ranges.