Very data light this week across the globe and the Eid break combining to low volume markets, but we do have US GDP and the FEDS favourite inflation measure: Core PCE at the end of the week.

The market is wrestling with trying to decide whether the FED are finished tightening and probably as with the FED itself the answer is that its future data dependent. This means that the appetite for risk assets is likely to be low until it becomes clearer.

PCE is expected to fall but core is likely to remain supported as the market believes that inflation is more ingrained and thereby sticky; in turn this may not mean more rate rises but the hoped for drop in rates may be somewhat delayed.

There is a lot of stock market earnings announcements which need to be good as its earnings that is keeping stocks higher than the current, gloomy, global economic outlook.

The Japanese are expected to remain pat on rates even with the new BoJ Governor: Ueda who is more hawkish than his predecessor but has the tightrope of getting Japan “normalised” and away from the constant stimulus. No change is expected but Japan does have inflation so the risks, of a move are not zero.

Commodities were, as seems to be the way these days, mixed with platinum finally reacting, higher, to supply tightness and increasing demand – it’s a thin market so sustaining these recent highs will be key to see if it can make ground.

After the recent OPEC+ cuts oil has started to come lower, ostensibly because the market takes in demand should there be a global slowdown, but it may be more as result of Russia finding markets for its oil and products and thus supply is holding up.

Broadly commodities are drifting away from the highs and the industrial metals appear more concerned with China economic outlook with copper falling back to month lows.