Another holiday shortened week with the UK and US out on Monday however from an economic stand point there’s a lot of data particularly employment. The market is watching inflation, covid data and politics more than employment but the numbers may give clues as to post covid economy recovery.
A very disappointing USA jobs report; with a slump in payrolls, on Friday makes the market nervous of a sustainable USA recovery which in turn put yields and thereby the US$ on the backfoot.
The Core PCE showed signs of the US economy starting to heat up and could make the Fed nervous that inflationary pressures may not be as short lived as they imply but this possible concern did not support either the US$ or yields.
Commodity prices regained some of what they lost two weeks ago and are tentatively trying the topside but are mindful of Chinese warnings, and data is showing that high commodity prices are throttling Chinese recovery.
Finally, at the back of the markets minds are fears of a third covid wave in the UK and in the Middle East / Africa which would clearly slow any recovery although the USA are now holding mass sports events again.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
May 31 | Ger | CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.4% | 2% |
June 01 | Ger | Unemployment (May) | 6% | 6% |
| EUR | CPI (YoY) (May) | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| EUR | Unemployment (Apr) | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| USA | ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | 61 | 60.7 |
June 02 | EUR | Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) | -0.3% | 11% |
June 03 | USA | ADP Employment Change (May) | 545K | 742K |
| USA | ISM Services PMI (May) | 62.9 | 62.7 |
June 04 | EUR | Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) | 9.6% | 12% |
| USA | Unemployment Rate (May) | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| USA | Nonfarm Payrolls | 621K | 266K |
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