The FED continue to see inflation either as transitory or manageable (or both) which leads to no rate changes and also a US$ that struggles to trade higher.
The markets are headed into the second half of the year with some concerns: inflation, less governmental support for world economies and fears as to who is going to foot the Covid recovery bill voters or corporations? But they can relax on one level – central banks are likely to wait until Q4 to see more data, before any action.
The standout economic data on the week will be Non Farm payrolls (NFP) and indeed the employment market in the US overall . Signs of wage inflation may provoke some unwinding of long stock positions as companies will be paying more to hire staff, lowering profit margins and adding to inflation worries. Unemployment benefits are being reduced or even ended in some states across America which should see the unemployment rate drop to 5.7%.
Commodities having been battered the week previous have shown signs of new buyers and thus a rebound from, in some cases, the years lows. Supply constraints, economic reflation helping the recovery.
OPEC+ meet this week and a minor increase in production is expected but oil remains resilient so long as the increase is limited to market expectations of 500 000 barrels per day.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
June 29 | USA | Consumer Confidence (Jun) |
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June 30 | GBP | GDP (QoQ Q1) | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| EUR | CPI (YoY Jun) | 1.9% | 2% |
| USA | ADP Employment Change (Jun) | 600K | 978K |
July 01 | EUR | Lagarde speaks |
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| GBP | Bailey speaks |
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| Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| USA | ISM manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 61 | 61.2 |
July 02 | USA | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 690K | 559K |
| EUR | Lagarde speaks |
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