Politics first – the German election led to a centre left victory but a narrow one which now means that the parties will have to negotiate a coalition which in turn is going to take time and creates indecision which markets dislike and probably leads to EURUSD being capped.

For different reasons another of the majors, GBP, is likely to struggle against the USD as the ruling party have their annual conference where unpopular tax rises will be discussed and the ongoing headline of queues at fuel stations worry the electorate.

The Japanese are likely to join the election train earlier than expected but as the Canadians discovered calling an election early to bolster support can backfire.

Evergrande affair bubbles on with them missing a coupon payment but thus far world markets reaction is indifferent perhaps because the company is talking of selling off $5bil worth of property assets?

Unemployment data in the US takes a front seat and has added importance as an indication of inflation and of course general recovery from Covid (assuming that is waning…)

Commodity movement is driven by energy concerns for example coal is on multi year highs as the world comes to terms with an energy shortage as the realisation that “greening” of energy is not without significant cost and disruption. It also doesn’t help China in their desire to control commodity prices.

Metals remain quiet and stable moving on risk sentiment presently.