Two important rate decisions from the Americans and the Japanese this week although neither likely to yield any changes… yet. However the interest will be in the comments afterwards and whether the FED will hold their nerve as inflation continues higher and sees it as transitory.
Inflation figures / updates due as well this week UK and Europeans looking at CPI figures and expecting stability, last week USA CPI was the highest in 10 years so perhaps the market needs to be wary of complacency?
It’s all about the FED and what they say – all markets are watching this one event and ready to interpret and although bond yields have ticked up its seen as within recent ranges and the FED also has to worry about the labour market which although has job vacancies hasn’t the people to fill them due to generous unemployment benefits, early retirements and fears of covid transmission. Additionally this is creating wage inflation as companies attempt to incentivise workers to return.
Metals drifted lower as buyers stayed away last week but OPEC+ continued to worry about the lack of investment into oil /gas and thus fears of supply constraints as economies reopen – all of which led to a strong recovery in the oil price.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
June 16 | GBP | Retail Price Index (YoY May) | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| GBP | CPI (YoY May) | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| USA | Crude Oil StocksChange (Jun 11) | -3M | -5.241M |
| USA | FED interest rate decision | 0.25% |
|
June 17 | EUR | CPI (YoY May) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 359K | 376K |
June 11 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| GBP | Retail Sales (YoY May) | 29% | 42.4% |
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