Likely to be a stressful week for markets that focus on the USA since we have FOMC minutes and the inflation report due, we also get retail sales thrown into the mix.
The markets, which are hoping that inflation is now under control, is looking for a 0.7% drop and if it gets it assets should have a good week but if inflation looks stubborn then its likely we have a bigger reaction since the market is sided with inflation topping and is likely positioned that way.
FOMC will be widely anticipated as the US is expected to end the tightening in May and the minutes will be scrutinised for evidence that is the case.
Last weeks non farm payrolls gave some justification for another 25 bps raise (will this be the last?) with bond yields rallying but the drop in jobs available and the JOLTS data earlier in the week gave rise to the market seeing a cooling in the US economy.
Away from the US , China will issue the official inflation rate, and Europe has retail sales data which may show the impact of rising rates on their economy.
In the commodities space oil was the biggest mover as OPEC+ cut production outside of the normal meetings showing concern by the cartel of the dropping value of the barrel, also illustrating that OPEC+ have an interest in keeping the price above $65-$70.
Gold moved higher very sharply after the JOLTS data but has subsequently drifted back to a healthy $2,000 per troy ounce. In industrials, copper suffered over the week which, given the continual commentary about tight supply and reduction in output, didn’t make much sense but China’s demand seemed to be the driver.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
April 11 | China | Inflation Rate | 2% | 1% |
| EUR | Retail Sales | -3.1% | -2.3% |
April 12 | USA | Inflation rate YoY | 5.3% | 6% |
| USA | Core Inflation Rate | 5.5% | 5.6% |
April 13 | GBP | GDP | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| USA | PPI MoM | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 237K | 228K |
April 14 | USA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.9% | -0.4% |
| USA | Industrial Production #YoY | -0.9% | 0.3% |
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