Higher rates almost inevitable, world growth lower

Eid Mubarak to our readers, and their families.

Outside of those celebrating Eid this week is very data heavy and three central banks (Fed, BoE and Reserve Bank of Australia) declare rate decisions.

Employment based data out of the US is going to be keenly watched and we have three measures:  JOLTS, ADP and Non Farm payrolls to take heed of. With inflation concerns being fuelled by wage costs the significance of these should not be understated however the market believes that existing inflation supports the very highly increase in US interest rates on Wednesday, as does last weeks strong consumer spending numbers from last week.

Outside of the US the other two rate decisions are likely to see increases in UK and Australia as both battle inflation.

Weak , and shocking figures out of Amazon at the end of the week caused a complacent market to reappraise tech stocks and the NASDAQ tumbled.

Overall the issues that have worried markets over the past month remain in fact if anything are getting worse as Beijing heads closer to a lockdown and the Ukraine war edges closer and closer to a Russia vs NATO confrontation neither of which are good for world growth let alone quality of life in those respective countries.

Commodities, outside of energy have weakened as world growth looks anaemic but “bargain” hunters are still happy to collect metals on dips.

Date

Country

Figures

Expected

Previous

May 02

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

55.3

56.5

 

USA

ISM Manufacturing PMI

57.6

57.1

May 03

EUR

Unemployment Rate

6.7%

6.8%

 

USA

JOLTS Job Openings

11.27M

11.266M

May 04

EUR

Retail Sales

0%

0.3%

 

USA

ADP

395K

455K

 

USA

FOMC Rate Decision

1%

0.5%

May 05

GBP

Rate Decision

1%

0.75%

 

USA

Initial Jobless Claims

185K

180K

May 06

USA

Non Farm Payrolls

380K

431K

 

USA

Unemployment Rate

3.5%

3.6%

DISCLAIMER – Do not rely on information contained in this Market Commentary.


The content of this Market Commentary is provided for general information only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. In particular, neither this Market Commentary nor any other content of our website should be construed as investment advice. The information contained in this Market Commentary is not, and should not be read as, an offer, recommendation or inducement to engage in investment activity. In no event shall we be liable for any damages resulting from reliance on or use of any information contained in this Market Commentary. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content of this Market Commentary. 

Although we make reasonable efforts to ensure that that the information in this Market Commentary is accurate as at the date on which it is published, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that it is accurate, complete or up to date.