Enough for now?
So the FED raised rates by 0.75bps but what does appear to have changed is that they are watching data for their next reaction and have reduced the “policy” of forward guidance. The view of a further rise in September, by 0.5%, persists but the pullback in the oil price and other commodities have given […]
Summer doldrums but with a rate rise
All eyes on the FED this week and they will provide market direction for the rest of Northern Hemisphere summer. The likelihood of a full point rise from the Americans has backed off and expectations are for 0.75bps, indeed the bond market is now looking at two more rises for 2023 which is less than […]
More lockdown, more rate rises
In addition to the presented data releases we do have PMI’s for Europe, UK and USA which will provide clues as to how economic growth is dealing with the current pessimism. Better than expected numbers will indicate resilience in the economies and thus fears of recession will abate. Prospects for a full 1 percentage point […]
Inflation leading to recession?
Eid Mubarak to all our readers. The markets are fixated at the moment with inflation and now possible recession, in fact, there’s a danger it will talk itself into one. We have inflation data out of Europe, China and USA this week and its not likely to show much of a slowing and indeed after […]
Higher rates almost inevitable, world growth lower
Eid Mubarak to our readers, and their families. Outside of those celebrating Eid this week is very data heavy and three central banks (Fed, BoE and Reserve Bank of Australia) declare rate decisions. Employment based data out of the US is going to be keenly watched and we have three measures: JOLTS, ADP and Non […]
Recession fears heightened
Rhetoric from FED speakers will be scarce since they are in the pre FOMC blackout period but the mood towards sharply increasing rate increases remains and this rolled over into the US stock market causing a near 3% slump in the Dow and the US$ continues to rally. Rate rises and continued lockdowns in China […]
Russia continues the war keeping commodities supported
London out for holidays on Monday and a thin on economic data make this the third such week where it will be difficult to see past headline trading and wide ranging volatility. At time of writing energy is climbing again – peace talks coming to nothing and it doesn’t look as though Russia are going […]
Stalemate and holidays
Holiday on Friday mean this, and next week are in effect four day weeks. The war in Ukraine grinds on but the market is finding that the commodity supply disruption from Russia is having less impact since the biggest commodity importer: China has locked down 30million people and that is reducing demand. Its also clear […]
Wars and Commodities keep inflation bubbling
It feels like a repeat from last week on the political front with the Russian advances in Ukraine being thwarted and possibly forcing a re-think in Moscow and attacks on Aramco installations by the Houthi rebels impacting the oil price. The oil price was coming lower as the US and its allies discussed releasing stocks […]
War and COVID provide headwinds
The week begins with Russia/Ukraine war continuing last weeks peace talks seemingly have gone nowhere and the war itself is taking on a siege mentality where the Russians encounter fierce resistance and don’t advance. This is likely to keep commodity prices elevated unless the talks actually lead to a cessation of hostilities. The weekend attacks […]