US$ had a poor end to the week as an expectation of nearly a million jobs turned out to be a paltry 266,000 and the US$ closed at recent lows against the other majors, perhaps the poor non- farm payrolls explains the Fed’s rate stance of “lower for longer”.
However, stocks remain on their highs as outside of jobs the US economy is showing significant signs of a rebound as is Germany which showed above expectation figures in retail sales and in factory orders. There is a dichotomy though as the service sectors of the EU economy continue to show contraction and until borders are fully open that is likely to continue.
Commodities moved higher, benefitting from the lower likelihood of US rate rises and a lower US$. LME copper saw an all time high and a $800 rally with the majority of that coming after the non-farm payroll figures and this in spite of China imports dropping in April.
A light week data wise with US retail sales the major release and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey who has a series of policy speeches throughout the week; they are unlikely to flag anything new but will be watched, just in case. Ramadan concludes on Wednesday / Thursday and will be followed by the Eid holiday. All of which may contribute to light, and consolidative trading week.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
May 11 | China | CPI (YoY – April) | 1% | 0.4% |
May 12 | UK | Industrial Production (MoM Mar) | 1% | 1% |
| UK | GDP (QoQ Q1) | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| USA | CPI (MoM April) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| USA | CPI (YoY April) | 2.3% | 1.6% |
May 14 | USA | Retail Sales (MoM April) | 1% | 9.7% |
| USA | Mich. Consumer Sentiment | 89.5 | 88.3 |
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