Recession fears heightened

Rhetoric from FED speakers will be scarce since they are in the pre FOMC blackout period but the mood towards sharply increasing rate increases remains and this rolled over into the US stock market causing a near 3% slump in the Dow and the US$ continues to rally.

Rate rises and continued lockdowns in China (Beijing the latest city to have also contributed to the drop in energy and metals prices as the fears of global slowdown and thereby demand for commodity drops.

But supply disruption has impacted soft commodities such as palm oil which has seen a sharp rise in price as Indonesia will ban exports from Thursday April 28 and the Ukraine war continues to create concern over the impact on this year’s wheat harvest.

Economic data is on the light side but Europe’s inflation rate will be watched as will its GDP at the end of the week. It would be difficult to see a low side figure for inflation and this is going to pressure a reluctant ECB to raise rates.

All in all the pessimistic mood remains for markets but the reasoning for it is evolving and fears of global recession are rising.

Date

Country

Figures

Expected

Previous

April 26

USA

Durable Goods

1%

-2.2%

 

USA

Consumer Confidence

108.0

107.2

April 28

USA

Initial Jobless Claims

180K

184K

 

USA

GDP

1.1%

6.9%

April 29

EUR

Inflation Rate

7.4%

7.4%

 

EUR

GDP YoY

4.6%

5.1%

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