London out for holidays on Monday and a thin on economic data make this the third such week where it will be difficult to see past headline trading and wide ranging volatility.
At time of writing energy is climbing again – peace talks coming to nothing and it doesn’t look as though Russia are going to back down in Ukraine so supply disruption is back in the markets minds.
There are PMI figures out in Europe but given the disruption from the war its hard to see any good news coming out of these numbers. UK will also issue retail sales and again that’s not likely to see a number on the upside.
China figures on Monday showed the economic damage that COVID lockdowns create with retail sales a lot lower than expected (perhaps economists are insufficiently pessimistic?) . But still China is unlikely to move on rates on Thursday.
Metals retain supported, China notwithstanding, with platinum finding demand and with the market no longer accepting Russia material a little scarcity is pushing prices higher. With the bond market being sold off (an indication of rising rates and inflation worries) then metals are likely to continue to rally.
The US$ remains wanted on the same inflation worries and particularly against the Yen which is reflection of interest rate prospects.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
April 20 | CHINA | Interest Rate decision |
| 3.7% |
| EUR | Industrial Production | 1.5% | -1.3% |
April 21 | USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 175K | 185K |
| EUR | Consumer Confidence | -20 | -18.7 |
April 22 | GBP | Retail Sales | 2.8% | 7% |
| EUR | PMI | 54 | 54.9 |
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