Stalemate and holidays

Holiday on Friday mean this, and next week are in effect four day weeks.

The war in Ukraine grinds on but the market is finding that the commodity supply disruption from Russia is having less impact since the biggest commodity importer: China has locked down 30million people and that is reducing demand. Its also clear that other regions are happy to find ways to make up the shortfalls, although finished product like wiring for autos, paper and glass are restricted and thus expensive . It remains noticeable that OPEC+ (of which Russia is a member) are not upping the amount they pump but that other nations are continuing to release oil from strategic holdings.

We do have inflation figures this week and they are unlikely to show any sign of abatement which in turn has impacted the bond markets which continue to show a rise in yields and thus supportive of the USD and negative for stocks.

The market is in need of new stimulus to change much as recent drivers: lockdowns, war and inflation are becoming a little stale and thus any change in the trajectory of any of these will have a disproportionate effect as the market appears comfortable with its present positioning.

Date

Country

Figures

Expected

Previous

April 12

USA

CPI

7.9%

8.4%

April 13

GBP

CPI

6.7%

6.2%

 

GBP

RPI

8.8%

8.2%

 

USA

PPI

10.6%

10%

April 14

USA

Initial Jobless Claims

166K

171K

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