FOMC left rates unchanged as expected decision and failed to worry the markets with an accelerated time frame for tapering which led to a marginally weaker US$.
US$ GDP was lower than expected but didn’t add any further to the view that it would throw off the FED roadmap to reducing tapering. To some extent it was countered by consumer spending numbers being higher.
One note of concern for the world economic recovery is relative weakness of Saturdays Chinese factory activity showing a significant slowdown; this on top of floods and a covid outbreak in Nanjing.
The Bank of England are the next central bank to make rate decision and like the others its likely to be no move but again we are watching the commentary that accompanies it for clues as to unwinding asset purchases.
Non farm payrolls the most notable data point this week and expected to show an improvement to 900k which, if it happens, should help the US$ regain some footing.
Commodities again mixed but oil and gas prices both showing supported markets along with the LME metals (aluminium made 3 year highs last week) . However platinum / palladium have suffered over the week continued but with once the other metals rallied then they did found some support.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
Aug 02 | UK | Manufacturing PMI | 60.4 | 60.4 |
| EUR | Manufacturing PMI | 62.6 | 62.6 |
| USA | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 60.8 | 60.6 |
Aug 04 | EUR | Retail sales | 8.2% | 9% |
| USA | ADP employment | 721k | 692k |
| USA | ISM Services PMI | 60.4 | 60.1 |
Aug 05 | UK | BoE interest rate decision |
|
|
| USA | Initial Jobless claims |
| 400k |
Aug 06 | USA | Unemployment rate | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| EUR | Non Farm payrolls | 900k | 850k |
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