All eyes on the FED this week and they will provide market direction for the rest of Northern Hemisphere summer. The likelihood of a full point rise from the Americans has backed off and expectations are for 0.75bps, indeed the bond market is now looking at two more rises for 2023 which is less than has been the case for the previous few months.
The Europeans managed a top end of expectations 50bps rise but the EUR continues to struggle against the USD.
Fears and worries of worldwide recession remain to the fore and despite tight oil markets and the inability of Biden to get the Arab world to pump more oil we have seen the price of WTI drop from $104 to $94 whilst the spread between Brent and WTI has grown to its highest in several years showing less supply in European markets as a result of the Ukraine war.
We are data light for the week bar GDP likely leading to range trading in most markets with perhaps a bias to a risk selloff as concerns of slowdown persist. Last weeks PMI figures showed economic activity in retreat especially in the US where numbers dived to 26 month lows.
Metals whilst showing small recovery off recent lows are still struggling to find their feet again and look vulnerable in any risk selloff scenario.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
July 26 | USA | Consumer Confidence | 97.3 | 98.7 |
July 27 | USA | Durable Goods Orders | -0.3% | 0.8% |
| USA | FOMC Announcement |
|
|
July 28 | USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 253K | 251K |
| USA | GDP Growth Rate | 0.4% | -1.6% |
July 29 | GER | Unemployment rate | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| GER | GDP yoy | 1.8% | 4% |
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