It feels like a repeat from last week on the political front with the Russian advances in Ukraine being thwarted and possibly forcing a re-think in Moscow and attacks on Aramco installations by the Houthi rebels impacting the oil price.
The oil price was coming lower as the US and its allies discussed releasing stocks of strategic stockpiles but then the vulnerability of Saudi installations to attack brought it right back up again. But if supplies are released from stockpiles and there are no further attacks then its likely the price will turn lower even with the speculator market increasing its long positions.
But Bidens speech in Poland on Saturday implied that the US now thinks that the war will grind on as the Russians will fail to take Kyiv and instead be forced to adopt siege tactics over significant Ukrainian cites.
The data this week is quite heavy for unemployment and manufacturing to the fore. The standouts being Non Farm Payrolls and ADP employment both of which are expected to be strong and thus bullish for an already strong US$ and inflationary. US$ strength is most significant against the EURO and the Yen both of whom seem in no hurry to raise rates to head off inflation in stark contrast to the FED who are aggressively looking to raise interest rates. US Treasury yields jumped on Friday (to 2.5%) and whilst that continues is likely to support the US$.
Commodity markets continue to hold reasonably strongly with the exception of palladium which dropped $300 on the week as Russian suppliers appear to have found ways to get the metal into international markets and the slowdown in car production impacts demand for auto catalysts.
Will be interesting to see where commodities go if the war continues as the forward contracts start to come due.
Date | Country | Figures | Expected | Previous |
March 28 | USA | Trade Balance | -106.2B | -107.63B |
March 29 | USA | Consumer Confidence | 107 | 110.5 |
March 30 | USA | ADP Employment Change | 438K | 475K |
| USA | GDP | 7.1% | 2.3% |
March 31 | GBP | GDP | 6.5% | 7% |
| USA | Core PCE | 5.5% | 5.2% |
| USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 200K | 187K |
April 01 | EUR | Core Inflation | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| USA | Non Farm Payrolls | 475K | 678K |
| USA | Unemployment Rate | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| USA | ISM Manufacturing | 58.6 | 58.6 |
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